Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has long been presented as a magic bullet to solve the problem of decarbonising the energy system.
If CCS works, we can keep on burning carbon-based fuels, then capture and bury the resulting carbon dioxide. Unsurprisingly, this technology conveniently fills a big hole in lots of plans to achieve net zero.
The idea can also be turned around, by saying “go ahead and build new coal plants, as long as they have CCS”. Either way, the big problem has been that so far, CCS hasn’t worked.
The Global CCS Institute has just released its .
Like previous reports, it tells an optimistic story, summarised in the following graph, showing a rapidly growing “pipeline” of projects, as well as increasing volumes of CO2 captured, now amounting to 64 million tonnes a year (most of this used in secondary recovery from oilfields).
A closer look reveals a less rosy picture. A look at the light blue (early development) bar suggests that this part of the graph can safely be ignored.
Almost none of the projects listed in this category in 2010 went ahead, as can be seen by looking at the low point in 2017. There is nothing in subsequent experience that suggests this is going to change.
Now look at the bottom two (green and brown) bars representing projects actually operating or under construction. The total in 2025 is not much more than the set listed as being operational or in advanced development in 2021 or even in 2011. And the recent growth rate has been modest, as compared with the rapid growth of projects in the light and dark blue “in development” bars.
Finally, is 64 million tonnes a year a lot, or a little? It’s equivalent to the emissions of around or the amount saved by . As a comparison, China added r in the first quarter of this year, achieving a greater emissions reduction than the annual contribution of all the CCS facilities in the world. And solar is actually delivering the rapid growth in installations regularly promised for CCS but never delivered.
Even in the improbable event that the five-fold increase projected in the report is delivered by 2030, CCS will be no more than a marginal contributor to emissions reductions. And as electrification of transport reduces oil demand, the economics of CCS, based on secondary oil recovery, will become even less appealing. This is a dead horse, and it’s time to stop flogging it.
[This article was first published on .]